JL MAG Rare-Earth Industry Price Briefing 10-25~10-29

Week 44，2021

1.    重要新闻简报Briefing of Important News

本周稀土市场行情，镨钕、金属钕、铽和镝铁的价格小幅上涨。亚洲金属网周末价格: 镨钕金属价格875-885元/KG；金属钕价格915-925元/KG；镝铁合金价格2830-2850元/KG；金属铽价格12250-12300元/KG。

This week, prices of PrNd, Nd metal, Tb and DyFe have a slightly rise. Prices from Asian Metal at the end of this weekend presented: PrNd metal 875-885 RMB/KG, Nd metal 915-925 RMB/KG, DyFe alloy 2,830-2,850 RMB/KG, and Tb metal 12,250-12,300/KG.

2.   业内人士分析Analysis of Professional Insiders

本周稀土价格大踏步前行，回顾市场表象如下：周初，镨钕产品继续保持稳健，成交与价格继续放量，稀交所开盘即封顶80万元/吨金属镨钕成交，此时氧化镨钕67-68万元/吨成为主流，市场整体询单热度很高，金属厂也在拿货。

This week rare earth prices stride forward, market appearance is as follows:

at the beginning of the week, PrNd products continued to remain stable, transaction and price continued to be large. At the opening of the rare earth stock exchange, the transaction of PrNd metal was capped at 800,000 yuan/ ton, and PrNd oxide 670,000-680,000 yuan/ ton became the mainstream. The overall inquiries in the market was very high, and the metal factory was also taking goods. 

本周中期（26-27日），稀土价格全线飙涨，镨钕氧化物及金属上午报价，下午打破，再出高价，市场报价极其混乱，所有参与者都在追高价成交。与此同时，缅甸开关未决，镝铽跟节奏而动，氧化铽重回950万元/吨，惜售不报价蔓延市场，成交价节节攀升。整个周中期，稀土价格在混乱中不断冲高。此时，整个产业链在对锁订单中维持，从分离到金属到磁材，每一环的锁单后询货，也仅仅是为了维持长单。

In the middle of this week (26-27 days), the prices of rare earths soared across the board. PrNd oxides and metals were quoted in the morning and high prices were offered in the afternoon. The market quotation was extremely chaotic, and all participants were chasing high prices for transactions. At the same time, the opening of Myanmar customs is still pending. Dy and Tb follow the rise, and Tb oxide returns to 9.5 million yuan/ ton. The market is generally not so willing to quote or sell, and the transaction price rises. Throughout the middle of the week, rare earth prices continued to rise in chaos. At this time, the whole industrial chain is maintained in the lock order. From separation to metal to magnetic materials, each time the goods are queried after locked order, only to maintain the long order. 

周末期（28-29日）疯涨的价格，让下游驻足观望，涨价逻辑能接受，涨价速度和疯狂程度却一言难尽，当下游多选择观望谨慎的时候，当稀交所成交持稳甚至流拍的时候，当废料开始畏高出货，甚至贸易商也开始小量放货的时候，价格已有些微妙了，镨钕价格开始缓慢回调，高价成交开始回落，主动出价给出相对合理价位，观望愈浓愈难稳。反之，镝铽继续放量攀高位，少量长单客户签单可见，价位随行就市，当镝铽走至此价位下，贸易商的心态也在担忧及期盼中徘徊，任何一个利空消息，或许都将刺破价格的高位。

The soaring price in the weekend (28-29) made the downstream stop and wait, the price increase logic was acceptable, but the speed and madness of price increase were hard to say. When the downstream chose to wait and see carefully, when the rare earth exchange traded steadily or even sold, when the waste began to fear high price level and deliver, and even when traders began to release small quantities of goods, the price was a little subtle. The price of PrNd began to slow down, and the high price transaction began to fall. The active bid gave a relatively reasonable price. The thicker the wait-and-see, the more difficult it is to stabilize. On the contrary, Dy and Tb continue to climb to a high level in large quantities. It can be seen from a small number of long order customers that the price follows the market. When Dy and Tb go below this price, the mentality of traders is also wandering in worry and expectation. Any bad news may pierce the high price. 

后续预测：镨钕自9月28日起涨开始，至今一月有余，但尤以本周涨幅巨大，价格虚高部分虽在周末期已刺破，部分贸易商冲刺出货的速度也许会加速镨钕回落的速度。主流大厂在本轮波动中始终保持谨慎态度，以长单老客户供应为主，稀交所放量的100吨金属镨钕，在一定程度上缓解了市场的虚高价格，堪称本轮价格指引的风向标。镝铽价格均处于历史高位，且下游的僵持与对峙状态仍旧十分强烈，另一方面受镨钕及开关消息影响，镝铽可能随时面临调整风险。（瑞道稀土资讯）

Follow up forecast: Pr and Nd have been rising since September 28 and have been more than one month so far, but especially this week, the increase is huge. Although the falsely high price has been pierced at the weekend, the speed of shipment by some traders may accelerate the decline of Pr and Nd. Major mainstream manufacturers have always been cautious in this round of fluctuations, focusing on the supply of long-term single and old customers. The big volume of 100 tons of metal Pr and Nd in the rare earth exchange market has alleviated the falsely high price to a certain extent, which can be called the wind vane of this round of price guidance. Dy and Tb prices are at historical highs, and the stalemate and confrontation in the downstream are still very strong. On the other hand, Dy and Tb may face adjustment risk at any time due to the news of PrNd and the opening Myanmar customs. (Ruidow Rare Earth Info)

南方稀土发布10月25日稀土氧化物挂牌价

Listing Price of Rare Earth Oxides on Oct. 25th from China Southern Rare Earth

单位：万元/吨（出厂含税价）

Unit: 10 thousand RMB/ ton (EXW price incl. tax)

3.    趋势图（参考亚洲金属网）Tendency Chart (refer to Asian Metal)

2021年10月29日

 Oct 29^th, 2021

提示：以上信息仅供参考！

Notes: the information above is for reference only!